《2025年天利38套五年高考真题汇编详解英语》

D
On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If, for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate goes down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist(转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow - up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together.” Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error.
Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision - making are enormous.
32.What is Paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?
A. The methods of estimation.
B. The underlying logic of the effect.
C. The causes of people’s errors.
D. The design of Galton’s experiment.
33.Navajas’ study found that the average accuracy could increase even if ________.
A. the crowds were relatively small
B. there were occasional underestimates
C. individuals did not communicate
D. estimates were not fully independent
34.What did the follow - up study focus on?
A. The size of the groups.
B. The dominant members.
C. The discussion process.
D. The individual estimates.
35.What is the author’s attitude toward Navajas’ studies?
A. Unclear. B. Dismissive. C. Doubtful. D. Approving.

答案： 32.B 段落大意题 [解析]通读第二段内容可知，第二段主要介绍了这种效应利用了这样一个事实：当人们犯错时，这些错误并不总是相同的。有些人会高估，有些人会低估。当足够多的这些错误被一起平均时，它们就会相互抵消，从而产生一个更准确的估计。如果人们相似，并且倾向于犯同样的错误，那么他们的错误就不会相互抵消。从更专业的角度来说，群体智慧要求人们的估计是独立的。不论出于何种原因，如果人们的错误变得相关或受他人影响，估计的准确性就会下降。由此可推知，第二段主要介绍了“群体智慧”效应的根本逻辑。故选B。
33.D 推理判断题 [定位句]The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. (第三段第二句)
译文：该研究的关键发现是，当人群被进一步划分为允许进行讨论的更小的群体时，这些群体的平均结果比同等数量的独立个体的平均结果更准确。
[解析]根据第二段最后一句“If, for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate goes down.”可知，Galton的研究认为如果人们的错误变得相关或受他人影响，估计的准确性就会下降。根据第三段第一句“But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon.”可知，Navajas的研究对这一现象进行了扭转，即否定了“如果人们的错误变得相关或受他人影响，估计的准确性会下降”的说法。结合定位句可知，在允许讨论，即错误变得相关或受他人影响的情况下，小组估计的平均结果更准确，即Navajas的研究发现即使在估计不完全独立的情况下，平均准确率仍然能提高。故选D。
[易错分析]本题易错选A。考生可能会根据第三段第二句中的“smaller groups”而错误的认为人群数较少能够提高平均准确率，而实际上这里是对第三段首句的回应，是在与Galton的研究作对比，Galton的研究认为人们的错误变得相关或受他人影响，估计的准确性就会下降，能够与之对比的就是人的错误变得相关或受他人影响，这种非完全独立的时候估计的准确性也有可能提高。考生如果能够理解两项研究的不同之处则可以避免选择该错误答案。
34.C 细节理解题 [定位句]In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. (第四段第一句)
译文：在一项100名大学生(参与)的后续研究中，研究人员试图更好地了解小组成员在讨论中的实际行为。
[解析]根据第四段尤其是定位句可知，后续研究的关注重点是讨论的过程。故选C。
35.D 观点态度题 [定位句]Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous. (第五段)
译文：尽管Navajas领导的这些研究具有局限性，而且还存在许多问题，但它们对小组讨论和决策的潜在影响是巨大的。
[解析]A项意为“不确定的”；B项意为“轻蔑的”；C项意为“怀疑的”；D项意为“赞成的”。根据定位句可推知，作者对Navajas的研究持赞成的态度。故选D。